2021-22 NBA Most Improved Player

With just 2 months until the start of the NBA season futures markets are opening up in more places with more diverse options. Player award markets are up several places, so I will have several previews over the next few weeks sharing my thoughts and wagers. Be sure you follow @AceNBAPreviews to get them all.

We’ll start this year with the market for most improved player(MIP) in the NBA for the 2021-22 season. Last year’s winner was Julius Randle who led the New York Knicks to the playoffs, but it was a crazy market throughout the season. Several players like Christian Wood & Jerami Grant were strong favorites to win the award at different points throughout the season. I think Randle was a fine choice, but it was an open race and a market with enough flux to offer us a chance at everyone at a nice +$(>2,0) price. Let’s keep that in mind and look back at past winners to see if we can identify any patterns to help us pick through this year’s field:

With just 2 months until the start of the NBA season futures markets are opening up in more places with more diverse options. Player award markets are up several places, so I will have several previews over the next few weeks sharing my thoughts and wagers. Be sure you follow @AceNBAPreviews to get them all.

For starters, the winner in each of those 10 years was a starter. Now, that may sound overly simple, but for the last 11 years, each winner started every game he played (Ok, Siakim missed 1, but you get the point). It’s hard to be the most anything playing bench minutes. We can immediately cross off anyone who doesn’t have a clear starting role on their team

This is an award that is generally given to younger players. The average winner had been in the league for 4 seasons with Randle becoming just the 3^rd player since 2010 to win MIP after their 4^th season. As always, remember that these are awards voted on by media members and media members LOVE a narrative. So wouldn’t it make sense for someone like that to pick a young player that exceeded our expectations and became one of the better players in the league?

Looking at the player’s team’s records year over yields some interesting results. Although most winners saw their team’s record improve, 4 saw their team’s record’s get worse. 9 out of 11 were on teams with winning records, but the average win rate was only 53.6%. It helps to be on a winner, but it has not been a prerequisite this last decade.

Winners of the MIP award have all seen their per game stats improve year over year. On average, they saw increases of 6.7 PPG, 1.6 RPG, 1.5 APG, and smaller jumps in steals & blocks. These are stats that are easy to track and ones that clearly impact the voters. Let’s be on the lookout for players who should see an increase in their usage this upcoming season. With usage comes stats and with better stats comes an MIP trophy.

Finally, and I’m not sure this matters, but it feels worth mentioning, there is only 1 center on that list and he’s more of a “center” in my opinion. The next few centers that won were Jermaine O’Neal in ’01-’02, Isaac Austin ’96-’97, and Gheorghe Muresan in ’95-’96. I’m not sure why this is, but it seems like big men are at a disadvantage here. It could be that expectations for big men are already high when they enter the league or that the style of the NBA has led to less “true centers” if you will.

To recap, we are looking for younger players with a stable starting positions, usage & stats that should increase, preferably on a winning team, and not a center. With all that in mind, here’s who I’m wagering on at current prices:

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This will be Johnson’s 3^rd season in the league and his 2^nd as a starter for the Spurs. He started all but 2 games he played last season, but played less than 30 minutes per game. Greg Popovich is known for limiting players minutes, but less so with younger players and given the changes in the roster I expect him to be close to, if not greater than, 30 minutes per game this year. San Antonio is likely to miss the postseason for a 3^rd consecutive year, but Popovich and the team continue to be respected in the media. The downtrend also means more opportunity for younger players like Keldon. I think he can make the needed improvements in his PPG, RPG, and APG to keep voters happy.

Another reason to be excited is Johnson’s participation in the Olympics. I say participation, because he only 44 minutes in the entire event, but he was the 6^th player 21 years old or young to play on the team since 1992. His coach picked him as an alternate to join to the squad and the value of being around some of the best NBA players for those weeks is incalculable. We’ve seen young players before return from the Olympics with a better work ethic and a more clear understanding of what it takes to be one of the very best players in the league. There are several reasons to see him on an upward trajectory this year and he meets all of our criteria.

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In a lot of ways this is a bet on the Memphis Grizzlies to exceed expectations this year. They made the playoffs last year and return a slightly improved roster, but are underdogs to make the postseason. Memphis’ big advantage in the regular season will be their depth. They have 10-12 solid to good NBA players which allows them withstand injuries and better manage minutes in poor scheduling/rest spots. If the Clippers lose too many games without Kawhi Leonard, Portland is forced to trade away Damian Lillard, or we see something as simple as a few stars missing several weeks the Grizzlies will be there with healthy, young players and a strong home court advantage that could allow to do even better than they did last year.

The player that will lead this team to a possible top 6 seed will be Ja Morant. He put up good numbers last year, the best of anyone we’ll be backing, but if he can improve his shooting even a little he should be able to push his PPG into the 22s and hopefully 23s. He should also compete for a place on the All Star team again this year. If the Grizzlies can be a top 8 team in the West for most of the year, Morant improves his stats enough, and at least makes everyone “Worst All Star Game Snubs” lists we are going to feel pretty good with this ticket.

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Once, several seasons ago, Kuzma got to play over 33 MPG, started most of the time, and averaged over 18 PPG for an entire year. Then a guy from Cleveland decided to head West and Kyle was sent to the bench for the last 2 years. LeBron James did get Kuzma a ring during those 2 years, but did you remember how good Kyle was his second year? I don’t think a lot of people do remember and now that he is a starter again are underestimating his chances at winning this award.

As part of the Russel Westbrook trade, he is now a Washington Wizard and a top 3 option on offense. Bradley Beal is top dog and unless Rui Hachimura takes a big leap forward in his game, I expect Kuzma to compete with Spencer Dinwiddie for touches. Not only do I expect him to win that battle, but also for Kyle to be part of an improved Washington team. The team is deeper, better defensively, and has more shooting. If they can keep Beal in town, it should be a fun team where Kuzma can get back to putting up big numbers on offense while playing solid defense every night. Let’s back him now at a number I expect to drop throughout the year.

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This is a bet on 2 things. The first bet is that Ben Simmons will be traded before the season or early in the year. If Simmons is traded, Thybulle is the clear choice to assume Ben’s starting spot and defensive duties. Despite the reports that Ben has not been in contact with teammates or the front office, I’m not so sure Daryl Morey is interested in moving him. The deals that have allegedly been discussed, like Wiggins, Wismeman, & 4 1^st round picks, are outlandish and would be clear wins for Philadelphia. Morey might be going through the process just to patronize 76ers fans and part of that would be demanding such a great offer he would have to accept. That said, I think there is a good chance Simmons is moved and even if he isn’t moved, our 2^nd bet might go well enough to cover the loss here.

That 2^nd bet we’re going to make is that Matisse Thybulle will build on his strong play in the playoffs and for Australia in the Olympics. He was shutdown defender for 76ers in the postseason and was assigned to guard the best perimeter player on the other team in the Olympics. He frustrated Luka Doncic in the bronze medal game and showed the world what we Thybullies(full disclosure, I am the inventor and leader of the #Thybullies) have known for years that he can be one of, if not the best defender in the league for several years. His offense is far behind, but unlike the other 76er who fits that bill we’ve seen Matisse improve his jump shot. If that improvement continues he may force his way into the starting lineup over an aging Danny Green. The chance of both things happening is much lower than 80 to 1 implies.

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This one is fairly simple. Can he stay healthy? He carried a strong second half of the 2019-20 season into last year, but tore his ACL after only 8 games. If he can return recovered from that injury he will likely be the starting point guard on deep, young team that can survive injuries and exceed expectations in Eastern Conference where the teams in the 7, 8, 9, 10 range have questions to be answered. Also, take a minute and think of how excited people will be to talk about the former #1 pick getting out of a bad situation in Philadelphia, surviving injury, and coming back to lead a competitive team.  This is one of those wagers where I expect it to be a clear loser early or in the hunt late in the year, but at 80 to 1 it’s worth some money.

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In 2018-19, the year the Raptors won the title, OG made the Rising Stars Challenge and a consistent contributor off the bench, but had an emergency appendectomy April that ended his season. He returned the next season after Kawhi went to LA and played almost 30 MPG for the 2^nd best team in the East. The Raptors lost in the 2^nd round to the Celtics in 7 games and OG was one of the best players for Toronto in the series. He continued to get better last averaging almost 16 points per game while shooting over 39% from 3 on 6 attempts per game and providing good defense. Unfortunately, he struggled with injuries, got shelved late in the year, and played only 43 of 72 games in an ugly season for a Raptors team that never played a game in Toronto.

The loss of Kyle Lowry will be felt on the floor and more importantly in the locker where he was leader of these team the past few seasons. I expect Nick Nurse to continue to run a tight ship and I’m excited to see who of Fred VanVleet, Pascal Siakim, or OG lead the team after learning from Lowry. No matter who steps forward there more shots for each player. I think OG is the logical choice to pick up a good portion of Lowry’s usage. FVV had a better PPG, but with an 18% drop in effective field goal percentage. Siakim took a step backwards scoring less, shooting worse, and generally looking more uncomfortable on the floor as the season progressed. Of course, both are due for positive regression now that they can finally(knock on wood) play games in Toronto this seas. OG improved in those conditions, is equally due for that positive regression and should be healthy to start the year. I like this price quite a bit.

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Those are our players and here’s how I’m staking to generate roughly the same net profit as long as one of our picks wins:

Thanks for reading! You can reach me on Twitter at @_noops with any thoughts, questions, or general comments on this anything or NBA related. Be sure to follow @AceNBAPreviews for all my preseason award and futures betting previews.